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ECONOMIC ISSUES

Volume 27 (2022)

Part 1, March

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Part 1, March

On the Dynamic Interdependency of Unemployment and COVID-19 Deaths (p.1)

by D M Welsch and D M Zimmer

Abstract: Using monthly data from U.S. counties, this paper offers evidence that rising COVID-19-related deaths appear to lead to reduced economic activity, but that reduced economic activity, in turn, helps to achieve its stated purpose: reducing subsequent deaths. Using a dynamic panel seemingly-unrelated regression model, the paper estimates that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to approximately 3,300 fewer COVID-19-related deaths nationally in the subsequent month. From a policy perspective, that finding offers suggestive evidence that lockdowns (and other restrictions), while economically painful, appear to be effective at reducing subsequent deaths

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Do Remittances Promote Economic Growth? New Evidence from India (p.11)

by S G Dastidar and N Apergis

Abstract: This study investigates the empirical relationship between remittances and economic growth in India, placing special attention on the non-linearity of this association. Previous studies on India have ignored the non-linear nature of the remittance-growth nexus. The study employs methods from the ARDL model framework to explore the non-linearity and establishes that remittances do not exhibit any growth effect in lower quantiles and up to 0.50, but the impact increases monotonically, getting more pronounced as the quantile increases. In other words, inward remittances must exceed a threshold to start affecting economic growth positively. It is argued that this behaviour of remittances is the consequence of a combination of several factors: patterns of utilisation (or, misutilisation) of the receipts, India's trade balance, a weak industrial sector, the lack of entrepreneurial opportunities, the lack of financial inclusion, and the exploitation of poor migrant workers.

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Effect of the Utilisation of Unilateral Trade? Preferences on Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Beneficiary Countries (p.39)

by S K Gnangnon

Abstract: This article explores the effect of non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) offered by the QUAD countries to developing countries on the foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to these developing countries. The analysis uses an unbalanced panel dataset of 108 beneficiary countries of NRTPs over the period 2002-2019. By means of the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments estimator, it establishes that low utilisation rates of Generalised System of Preference (GSP) programmes are associated with greater FDI flows to less advanced beneficiary countries, including least developed countries (LDCs). However, high utilisation rates of GSP programmes induce greater FDI flows to advanced beneficiary countries, including Non-LDCs. In addition, low (high) utilisation rates of other trade preferences generate higher FDI flows to less advanced beneficiary countries (relatively advanced countries). The analysis also shows that GSP programmes and other trade preferences are strongly complementary in enhancing FDI inflows, especially for high utilisation rates of other trade preferences programmes. The utilisation of each of these two blocks of NRTPs generates greater FDI flows to countries that endeavour to export increasingly complex products, or those with lower dependence on natural resources. Finally, the utilisation of NRTPs generates higher FDI inflows to countries that substantially liberalise their trade regimes.

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