Volume 25 (2020)
Part 1, March
Please select from the titles below:
Articles
- L T Katseli, A Theofilakou and K-M Zekente, Central bank independence and inflation preferences: New empirical evidence on the effects of inflation, Vol.25, No.1, p.1-29
- D J Webber, F Kitagawa and A Plumridge, Student entrepreneurial propensities in the individual-organisational-environmental nexus, Vol.25, No.1, p.31-59
- K Y Lim and A Raza, Domestic industrial learning externalities of innovation and imitation: Informing industrial policy with Cross-country evidence, Vol.25, No.1, p.61-85
- J J Reade, C Singleton and L V Williams, Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model, Vol.25, No.1, p.85-106
Book Reviews
- D H Neilson, Minsky, Vol. 25, No. 1, p.107/108
- G Epstein, The Political Economy of Central Banking Contested Control and the Power of Finance, Selected Essays of Gerald Epstein, Vol.25, No. 1, p.108-110
- F Coppola, The Case For People’s Quantitative Easing, Vol.25, No.1, p.110/111
Part 2, September
Please select from the titles below:
Articles
- M Bahmani-Oskooeeand and H Karamelikli, Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkey-US Commodity Trade: An Asymmetry Analysis, Vol.25, No.2, p.1-29
- Arne Heise, Wage-led and profit-led regime research – promising scientific research programme or scientific cul-de-sac?, Vol.25, No.2, p.31-49
- S M Amadae, Life without Virtue: Economists Rule. Review essay of Dani Rodrik’s Economics Rules, Vol.25, No.2, p.51-70
Book Reviews
- I Alami, Money Power and Financial Capital in Emerging Markets: Facing The Liquidity Tsunami, Vol.25, No. 2, p.71/72
- B Pietrykowski, Work, Vol.25, No. 2, p.72-74
Part 1, March
by L T Katseli, A Theofilakou and K-M Zekente
Abstract: On theoretical grounds, a clear distinction exists between central bank independence and inflation aversion. In the conduct of monetary policy, both contribute to lower inflation. In this paper, we re-examine empirically the nexus between central bank independence and inflation for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1992–2014 by accounting explicitly for the effect of central bank inflation preferences on inflation developments. Our evidence suggests that both features matter for mitigating inflationary pressures, in line with the relevant theoretical studies. Central bank independence alone seems not to be a sufficient condition to curtail inflation; the expected inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation appears to hold when we account for the (inflation) conservatism of the central bank. At the same time, higher central bank conservatism seems to result in lower inflationary pressures in the economy. Our results do not support the hypothesis of an interaction (either as substitutes or complements) between the degree of independence and conservatism of the central bank.
Student entrepreneurial propensities in the individual-organisational-environmental nexus (p.31)
by D J Webber, F Kitagawa and A Plumridge
Abstract: While there is a consensus that universities contribute to entrepreneurship and innovation, it is not clear how different educational environments contribute to different students’ desires to start up a business, and it is even less clear how different universities contribute to entrepreneurship activities in a particular place. This study improves understanding of entrepreneurship education and the university-based entrepreneurship ecosystem at the individual, organisational and environmental levels by examining organisational contexts and individual students’ social contexts, including motivations towards and perceptions of graduate start-ups. Applications of logit and ordered logit regression analyses to a unique student-level dataset across two universities in one city-region demonstrates the importance of the university, gender and a series of home and employment experiences as determinants of the propensity to start up a business, while economic factors change attitudes towards setting up a business.
by K Y Lim and A Raza
Abstract: This study estimates four different domestic industrial learning externalities of and between imitation and innovation. Using highly disaggregated industrial data as measures for product varieties, we test for the relationship between imitation and innovation based on four theoretically informed, policy-relevant hypotheses. In sum, we document robust and statistically significant stepping-stone effect of imitation on innovation, and a reverse positive creative-imitation effect from innovation to imitation. Likewise, we also estimate positive within-sector learning effects for both innovation and imitation. These empirical findings have significant implications for industrial policies designed to foster innovation-driven growth, especially in middle-income and developing economies.
by J J Reade, C Singleton and L V Williams
Abstract: Using betting odds from two recent seasons of English Premier League football matches, we valuate probability and point forecasts generated from a standard statistical model of goal scoring. The bookmaker odds show significant evidence of the favourite-longshot bias for exact scorelines, which is not generally present for match results. We find evidence that the scoreline probability forecasts from the model are better than what the odds of bookmakers imply, based on forecast encompassingregressions. However, when we apply a simple betting strategy using point forecasts from the model, there are no substantial or consistent financial returns to be made over the two seasons. In other words, there is no evidence from this particular statistical model that the result, scoreline, margin of victory or total goals betting markets are on average inefficient.
Part 2, September
Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkey-US Commodity Trade: An Asymmetry Analysis (p.1)
by M Bahmani-Oskooeeand and H Karamelikli
Abstract: In this paper we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of lira-dollar volatility on 56 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and the US When a linear model was estimated, which assumes the effects to be symmetric, we found short-run effects of volatility on 23 Turkish exporting industries and 31 Turkish importing industries. Short-run effects lasted into the long-run in 6 exporting and 18 importing industries. However, when a nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run effects in 41 exporting and 42 importing industries which were asymmetric in all industries. Short-run effects translated into asymmetric long-run effects in 45 exporting and 22 importing industries.
by A Heise
Abstract: Over the past three decades, a small but very productive Post Keynesian and Marxian research community has engaged in the elaboration of a scientific research programme (SRP) that has come to be known as wage and profit-led regime research. The intention of this article is to examine whether this SRP can fill an obvious gap in Post-Keynesian theory: In accordance with Keynes’s considerable neglect of distributional questions in his General Theory, most Post-Keynesians have underemphasised a phenomenon that has become one of the most socially and politically concerning problems of our times: growing income inequality. It will be argued that neo-Kaleckian and neo-Marxian regime approaches have produced few helpful insights for policy procurement, and through their self-inflicted focus on functional income distribution have even distracted from more important questions of personal income distribution and the incorporation of wage policy into a strategy of coordinated macroeconomic policies to boost growth and employment.
Life without Virtue: Economists Rule. Review essay of Dani Rodrik’s Economics Rules (p.51)
by S M Amadae
Abstract: This review essay of Economics Rules situates Dani Rodrik’s contribution with respect to the 2007–2008 global economic crisis. This financial meltdown, which the eurozone did not fully recover from before the Covid-19 pandemic, led to soul-searching among economists as well as a call for heterodox economic approaches. Yet, over the past decade, instead the economics profession has maintained its orthodoxy. Rodrik’s Economics Rules offers a critique of the economics profession that is castigating but mild. It calls for economists to use more and diverse models without becoming wedded to any single model or an overarching vision. Yet Rodrik ratifies many of the benchmark models standard to orthodox economics and provides little ground for a fundamental rethinking of the discipline. This essay analyses the conservatism underlying Rodrik’s approach, which upholds general equilibrium theory and rational expectations underlying the efficient market hypothesis. It argues that the economics discipline’s scope-creep to maintain its applicability to all human decision-making, and its acceptance of all-inclusive utility functions, crowds out moral sentiments and civic virtue. Thus. it argues that rather than urging economists simply to be more cautious in their application of models to address particular social concerns, instead economists must recognise their discipline’s inherent limitations.
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